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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-11-18 21:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182039 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 Overall, the cyclone's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since the previous advisory. The center of the depression is on the southeastern edge of a large cluster of deep convection, indicative of a continuation of moderate southeasterly shear. A well-defined swirl is also seen in visible satellite imagery, rotating around the south side of the estimated mean center. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt. The center has been moving erratically during the last 6 to 12 hours, with fixes during this time indicating a nearly stationary initial motion. The tail of a deep mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States extends southwestward to just north of the depression, which has created a weakness near 110W. The weakness has created a weak steering environment that should persist for about the next 12 to 24 hours and result in the depression's moving erratically or slowly northward around a weak mid-level high to the east. A turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest is expected after that time with an increase in forward speed when a mid-level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico builds westward into the eastern Pacific to the north of the cyclone. After that time, a trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in a northward turn in 96 hours. The new track forecast is much faster than the previous forecast and adjusted to the left, especially beyond 48 hours, but is not as far west as the multi-model consensus. SHIPS model output indicates a lessening of southeasterly shear over the depression within 24 hours, with the shear remaining relatively low through about 72 hours. Meanwhile, the lower- to mid- tropospheric moisture is forecast to decrease some and be only marginally conducive for strengthening. However, since the cyclone should be over anomalously warm waters during this period, intensification is forecast, especially after the shear decreases. After 72 hours, a tremendous increase in southwesterly shear ahead of the trough advancing from the west should result in rapid weakening, with remnant low status likely in 96 to 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one in agreement with the latest SHIPS/LGEM guidance and remains slightly above the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Mixed Use Zones Project Discussion Draft Summary
2015-11-18 18:38:06| PortlandOnline
PDF Document, 1,341kbCategory: October
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mixed
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-11-18 16:57:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181557 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 The circulation associated with the low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California has become well-defined overnight according to scatterometer data. These data and first-light visible satellite imagery also indicate the that center of the cyclone is near the southeastern edge of large mass of cold-topped convection, suggesting the presence of some southeasterly shear. A Dvorak classification of T2.0 from TAFB, along with the earlier scatterometer data, is used to set the intensity to 30 kt. Since the history of fixes on this system is short, the initial motion estimate of 360/02 is somewhat uncertain. A deep trough over the central United States has created a significant weakness along 110W, which has made for a weak steering environment around the depression. However, a weak mid-level anticyclone to the south of mainland Mexico has been imparting a slow northward motion. This motion should continue for another 24 hours, at which time a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to build westward into the eastern Pacific when the central U.S. trough lifts out. The building ridge should result in a northwestward and then a west-northwestward track through 72 hours. After that time, a trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in its recurvature in about 96 hours. The official forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF and GFS solutions, and generally near the multi-model consensus. There are mixed signals on the potential for intensification in the short term. Although the waters are anomalously warm, some southeasterly shear is likely to continue to affect the cyclone over the next day or two, along with some drying of the lower to middle troposphere. These large-scale conditions suggest that some strengthening should occur, but it likely would be tempered by these two negative factors. Around 72 hours, the cyclone should encounter an environment of increasing south-southwesterly or southwesterly shear associated with the trough advancing from the west and rapidly weaken, likely becoming a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is a little above the multi-model consensus and closest to the ECMWF SHIPS output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1600Z 13.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 13.3N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.8N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.8N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.1N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 20.5N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Panel discussion examines Industry 4.0 and its impact on connectivity
2015-11-17 09:25:47| Canadian Plastics Headlines
Leading experts gathered recently to discuss the impact of Industry 4.0 on industrial connectivity, and the opportunities that exist in this new era. The post Panel discussion examines Industry 4.0 and its impact on connectivity appeared first on Canadian Plastics.
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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-11-12 03:38:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 Kate continues to undergo extratropical transition. Satellite imagery show that Kate's cloud pattern has become increasingly elongated and asymmetric since the last advisory due to strong westerly shear. The cloud pattern has also taken on a comma-shape appearance, typically a precursor to frontogenesis and a completion of extratropical transition. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt, based on a blend of Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to merge with Kate in about 12 hours or so, which should result in Kate's becoming post-tropical. After this occurs, baroclinic forcing from the trough should allow the post-tropical cyclone to maintain its intensity or perhaps even re-strengthen as indicated in the global models through about 24 hours. Beyond this time, a slow decay is forecast, with the post- tropical cyclone predicted to lose its identity in about 3 days when a new baroclinic development over the far north Atlantic becomes more dominant. The new intensity forecast represents an update of the previous one, with dissipation now shown a day sooner. Kate continues to move rapidly east-northeastward but appears to have slowed down some, and the initial motion estimate is 065/36. As a post-tropical cyclone, Kate's motion is forecast to decrease further during the next during 24 hours while it merges with the extratropical system to the west. A new and potent shortwave trough reaching Atlantic Canada in 2 to 3 days should then cause Kate to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward until dissipation. The new track forecast is generally slower relative to the previous one, consistent with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 40.1N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 41.2N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/0000Z 42.2N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1200Z 43.1N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0000Z 45.3N 37.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0000Z 53.8N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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