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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 16

2015-10-23 23:03:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232103 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured 192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall, with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt, and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours, if not sooner. Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to the left of the center after that time. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. 3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the center - about 15 miles across. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W 165 KT 190 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0600Z 26.9N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 15

2015-10-23 16:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231449 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt. Some fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours. The hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory and the initial motion is now 005/9. Patricia is about to recurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S. These features should steer the cyclone generally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico until dissipation occurs. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. 3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the center - about 15 miles across. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have occurred. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W 130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 14

2015-10-23 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than predicted by the normal inland decay rate. Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature. However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known just how strong a tropical cyclone it was. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 13

2015-10-23 07:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230531 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90 percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record. A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of 894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye) gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through landfall this afternoon or evening. No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous advisory. This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory for Patricia. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 160 KT 185 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2015-10-23 04:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230240 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C cloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat, with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed. After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains. The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an initial motion estimate of 330/9. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to better reflect the latest consensus guidance. Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area overnight or early Friday. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning late tonight and continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST 36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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