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Hurricane KATE Forecast Discussion Number 12

2015-11-11 21:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112034 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 500 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015 Kate is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. The cloud pattern has become asymmetric, due to very strong westerly shear, with the low-level center displaced to the west of the associated deep convection. In addition, stable stratocumulus clouds are wrapping around the south side of the circulation, and there is some evidence of a developing warm front to the east of the center. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, based on the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The combination of continued strong shear and the interaction with an extratropical cyclone, located just to the west of Kate, should cause the hurricane to lose tropical characteristics tonight. After extratropical transition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic forcing. The new intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Kate continues to race east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 065/38 kt. A slowdown is expected to begin soon, and an erratic northeastward to east-northeastward motion is likely during the next couple of days while Kate interacts with, and then absorbs, the extratropical low to its west. After Kate and the extratropical low merge Thursday night or early Friday, a faster northeastward motion is expected. The new track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 38.2N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 40.1N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/1800Z 41.5N 48.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0600Z 42.2N 45.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1800Z 43.9N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1800Z 51.9N 25.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1800Z 57.7N 13.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane KATE Forecast Discussion Number 11

2015-11-11 15:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111435 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 An SSMIS microwave image from a few hours ago indicated that Kate is well organized, with a large eye feature and a curved band that almost completely surrounds it. During the past few hours, however, the cloud tops have been warming, likely due to its passage over decreasing SSTs. The initial wind speed remains 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The vertical wind shear is increasing over Kate, and it is expected to be in excess of 40 kt later today. In addition, a strong mid-latitude trough is approaching the cyclone. Based on these expected conditions, it appears likely that Kate will transition to an extratropical cyclone tonight or early Thursday. After the transition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic forcing. Kate is racing east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is a speedy 065/39 kt. The hurricane is expected to slow down later today and move erratically northeastward to east- northeastward during the next couple of days when it interacts with, and ultimately absorbs, an extratropical low to its west. A faster northeastward motion is predicted by the weekend after the merger of the weather systems. The new track forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded based on recent scatterometer data. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 36.8N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 39.0N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 41.1N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0000Z 41.8N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1200Z 42.4N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z 48.5N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1200Z 56.1N 16.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane KATE Forecast Discussion Number 10

2015-11-11 10:06:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110906 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015 The overall structure of Kate has again not changed much in conventional satellite imagery since the previous advisory, with the center in an area of strong convection. However, a just received AMSR microwave overpass shows that the convective banding has become better defined near the center. Based on this and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB of 65 kt, Kate is upgraded to a hurricane. The initial motion is 055/35. Kate is now embedded in the westerlies between the subtropical ridge and a baroclinic low near New England. The tropical cyclone should continue a general east-northeastward motion across the North Atlantic for the next several days. However, a decrease in forward speed and some erratic motion are expected around 36-48 hours as Kate interacts with, and eventually absorbs, the baroclinic low. Despite the complexity added by the merger, the track guidance is in excellent agreement with only a small spread in direction and speed. The new forecast track is a little north of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. A combination of increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should prevent any additional intensification. Kate should begin extratropical transition in 12-24 hours and complete it by 36 hours as the cyclone absorbs the baroclinic low. The resulting extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 36.0N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 38.1N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 40.8N 53.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 42.3N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z 42.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 46.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 54.0N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 9

2015-11-11 03:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110239 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 PM AST TUE NOV 10 2015 The overall structure of Kate has not changed much since this afternoon, however, the area of cloud tops has expanded and cooled within the past few hours. NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data from around 0000 UTC showed that the center remains embedded within the central dense overcast, but there was significant tilt between the 700 mb and surface centers. Although flight-level winds and 0000 UTC Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 65 kt, dropwindsonde and SFMR data indicate that the winds aloft are not efficiently mixing down to the surface and the initial intensity remains 60 kt. There is only a short window of opportunity for Kate to reach hurricane strength, before it moves over cooler waters and the shear increases to more than 30 kt by Wednesday morning. Kate is expected to remain a powerful cyclone as it becomes extratropical in about 36 hours. Later in the period, Kate is forecast to gradually weaken as it loses baroclinic forcing. The extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days. The initial motion estimate is 055/30 kt. Kate should continue moving rapidly northeastward or east-northeastward during the next 24 hours, then temporarily slow down during the 36 to 48 hour time period while it interacts with an upper-level trough. After that time, the extratropical low should again accelerate northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. The model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the updated track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 33.9N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 36.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 38.9N 55.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 41.6N 50.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0000Z 42.6N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0000Z 44.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0000Z 50.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown

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PortlandMaps Beta Project Presentation and Discussion

2015-11-10 23:40:17| PortlandOnline

Join the Bureau of Development Services for a PortlandMaps Beta Project Presentation and Discussion November 20th from noon-1pm PDF Document, 2,438kbCategory: ONI Blog

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