Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 8

2015-10-22 10:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia has become significantly better organized overnight, with an eye evident on infrared imagery, and the system now has well-defined convective banding features. The initial intensity estimate is set at 75 kt, which is above the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at 0600 UTC to account for the increased organization since that time. This is also in good agreement with the most recent ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is strong, as evidenced by the expanding cirrus canopy. The hurricane has been moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, or around 295/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast philosophy. Patricia is likely to move around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area during the next day or so. By late Friday, the system should turn toward the north-northeast as it moves between the high and a trough over extreme northwestern Mexico. The official track forecast is nudged very slightly to the west to account for a slight westward shift in the GFS/ECMWF consensus. This is also very close to the overall dynamical model consensus. The environment appears to be very conducive for strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, with some increase in south-southwesterly shear and some mid-tropospheric drying later on Friday. An earlier 37 GHz GPM image showed a cyan ring around the eye, which often presages rapid intensification. Given that, and the currently favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, rapid strengthening (30 kt over 24 h) is forecast through tonight followed by a slower pace of intensification up to landfall. This is in good agreement with the latest DSHIPS prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.3N 103.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.3N 104.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 25.0N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion patricia forecast

 

Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2015-10-21 23:05:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212105 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Patricia has become much better organized since this morning. The aircraft reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt about 15 n mi southeast of the center along with surface wind estimates of 50-55 kt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 995 mb. Based on this information the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. The storm has continued to accelerate, possibly aided be some reformation of the center, and the initial motion is now 275/14. Other than this, the track forecast scenario from the previous advisory still looks good. The tropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After 12-24 hours, Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. While the model guidance remains in excellent agreement with this scenario, there has been a westward shift since the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also adjusted westward. However, the new forecast track is a little to the east of the center of the guidance envelope. Now that Patricia has become better organized, it should strengthen for the next 48 hours or so until a combination of increasing shear and land interaction halts intensification. The intensity guidance is forecasting a stronger peak intensity than previously, and the new intensity forecast is adjusted upward accordingly. The new forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. However, some of the models continue to forecast a stronger peak intensity, and it is possible that Patricia could rapidly intensify into a stronger system than currently forecast. After landfall, Patricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western Mexico. The current forecast track requires a hurricane warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.1N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.8N 101.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 14.8N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 18.1N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 23.0N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 5

2015-10-21 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211439 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Conventional and microwave satellite data show that Patricia remains poorly organized. The low-level circulation is elongated from north to south, and there is little evidence of a tight inner core. While the convection is vigorous, it is occurring mainly in an almost linear area west and south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Patricia is moving faster toward the west with an initial motion of 270/10. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. The tropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After about 24 hours, Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the ridge and a deep- layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. The model guidance is in excellent agreement with this scenario and forecasts landfall along the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 hours. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track, and it lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Continued light shear and warm sea surface temperatures are favorable conditions for Patricia to strengthen if the storm can overcome its current disorganized condition. Based on the premise that this will happen, the intensity forecast is identical to that of the previous advisory in calling for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 36 hours and continue strengthening through landfall. Several of the guidance models forecast a higher peak intensity than the official, and rapid intensification remains a possibility given the favorable environment. After landfall, Patricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western Mexico. There are no changes to the watches for the coast of Mexico at this time. Warnings my be required for portions of the watch area later today or tonight. It should be noted that several of the global models develop a low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in four to five days. At this time, it appears that this system will be a non-tropical low that absorbs the remnants and moisture of Patricia moving northeastward across Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 12.9N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 13.4N 99.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.5N 101.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.7N 103.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 17.3N 103.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-10-21 10:41:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210841 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 The cloud pattern of the storm is not well organized at this time, with not much deep convection concentrated near the estimated center position. There is also a lack of well-defined banding features. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak CI Value from TAFB. The center is not easy to track on nighttime imagery, with a significant spread in fix locations from TAFB and SAB, and the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/6 kt. The primary steering features over the next few days are a mid-tropospheric trough extending southward into extreme northwestern Mexico and a high over the Gulf of Mexico. This flow regime should cause Patricia to turn gradually to the right over the next few days, and cross the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 hours or so. The official track forecast resembles the previous one but is a little faster, and is close to the new model consensus. This is between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. Although the tropical cyclone has not strengthened significantly thus far, the environment seems to be quite conducive for intensification. With very warm sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C, light vertical shear, and a very moist atmosphere likely to prevail during the next couple of days, Patricia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tomorrow. The official intensity forecast is close to the LGEM guidance, but it should be noted that if the system develops a well-defined inner core, rapid intensification is certainly possible. Note that in the official wind speed forecast shown here, additional strengthening is implied after the 48 hour forecast and up until landfall. Based on the new 48-hour forecast location and the predicted wind radii, A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 13.2N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-10-21 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210242 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Although cloud tops have warmed since the previous advisory, the overall convective cloud pattern has become a little better organized. Dropsondes released from a NASA WB-57 aircraft conducting research in Patricia earlier this afternoon for the Office of Naval Research's Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment was helpful in locating the low-level center, and also confirmed the development of a weak mid-level eye-like feature noted in recent passive microwave images. The initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt based on a satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMMS ADT, making the cyclone the 16th named storm of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. This intensity is also supported by dropsonde data in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone between 2000-2200Z, which indicated surface winds of 34-36 kt and also a fairly deep layer of 37-39 kt winds from 1000-925 mb. Winds west of the center were 30 kt, suggesting that the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event may be subsiding. The initial motion estimate is 255/04 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Patricia is expected to move west-southwestward to westward for the next 12 hours or so as the aforementioned gap wind event forces the cyclone a little southward. After that time, Patricia is forecast to turn west-northwestward on Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday as the cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge that extends from the central Gulf of Mexico southwestward into central Mexico. Although there is some spread in the NHC track guidance, the models are in fairly good agreement that Patricia should turn north-northwestward to northward by 72 hours, making landfall in southwestern Mexico. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies close to the consensus models TVCE and GFEX. The large-scale environment of vertical shear less than 5 kt, very high mid-level humidity values in excess of 80 percent, and SSTs greater than 30C support at least steady strengthening until landfall occurs. The possibility of rapid intensification (RI) exists once a distinct eye feature develops, which could develop in 36 hours or so. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory in calling for Patricia to become a hurricane before making landfall in Mexico, and closely follows the LGEM intensity model. However, if RI should occur, then Patricia will likely be stronger at landfall than the current forecast is indicating. After landfall, the cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico. A tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required by Wednesday morning for portions of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 13.0N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 14.2N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND NEAR COAST 96H 25/0000Z 22.6N 105.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [933] [934] [935] [936] [937] [938] [939] [940] [941] [942] [943] [944] [945] [946] [947] [948] [949] [950] [951] [952] next »