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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 50
2015-10-27 09:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Olaf is rapidly deteriorating due to the effects of southwesterly shear and cold water. The low-level center is becoming elongated and the remnant convection is well removed from the center. Based on a recent ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. Global models indicate that the cyclone will continue to decouple fast, and most likely the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low later today, and into a trough of low pressure in a day or two. The overall circulation is moving toward the northeast at 10 kt. However, as the system becomes a shallow cyclone or a trough in about a day, it will be steered west-southwestward by the low-level flow associated with an eastward moving high pressure system to the north of Olaf. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and it follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 26.4N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 27.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 27.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 26.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 25.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 49
2015-10-27 03:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270238 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 Olaf has become less organized over the past several hours. The associated convection has decreased and has been displaced northeast of the center by 25 kt of vertical wind shear. In addition, the low-level circulation has become elongated from northeast to southwest. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to that value. A combination of continuing shear, cool sea surface temperatures, and dry air entrainment should keep Olaf on a weakening trend. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours, and both of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast if new convection does not form near the center. The new forecast is an update of the previous CPHC forecast. The initial motion is 060/16. Olaf is currently being steered by a strong deep-layer trough to the north of the cyclone. This trough is forecast to move quickly eastward, with a low-level ridge building in its wake to the north of Olaf. As Olaf weakens and becomes a shallow system, this ridge should become the dominant steering mechanism and cause the cyclone to turn southward and eventually southwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 26.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 27.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 27.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 26.1N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 24.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-10-24 16:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241434 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Patricia continues to weaken rapidly over the mountains of central Mexico. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the mid- to upper-level center is now displaced to the northeast of the surface center, and there is little organized convection associated with the cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt based mainly on surface observations, and this could be generous. Patricia is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or trough during the next 6-12 hours as it moves northeastward into northeastern Mexico. A low pressure area is developing over southern Texas, with the system forecast to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, the low is likely to absorb the remnants of Patricia along with the associated moisture, and this is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details on this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Even though Patricia is weakening rapidly, continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 23.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 26.0N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-10-24 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Patricia has been weakening rapidly while moving farther inland over the rugged terrain of western Mexico. Although the circulation is still intact, the associated convection has lost a significant amount of organization. Based on the degraded appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. Patricia is moving quickly north-northeastward at about 18 kt embedded in the flow between a trough over northwestern Mexico and an anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion is expected to continue until Patricia dissipates over the mountains of Mexico by tonight. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this system is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next couple of days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. The wind radii in the southeastern quadrant has been expanded outward significantly based on recent ASCAT passes, which indicated that tropical-storm-force winds were still occurring in a convective band near the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Even though Patricia is weakening quickly, strong and damaging winds at higher elevations could persist through this morning. 2. Continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 22.3N 103.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-10-24 04:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240244 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 Satellite and surface data indicate that the center of Patricia made landfall at about 615 PM CDT (2315 UTC) near Cuixmala, Mexico with maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt/165 mph. Since that time, the eye has become obscured, with a large circular area of deep convection continuing near the center. The initial wind speed is reduced to 115 kt in agreement with the TAFB Dvorak classification. Rapid weakening should continue as the cyclone interacts with the mountains of Mexico. The forecast intensity is largely based on the Decay-SHIPS model, but is a little lower than that model due to the very high terrain. Patricia should move to the north-northeast and northeast ahead of a mid-level trough over the south-central United States until it dissipates in a day or so. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. An unconfirmed sustained wind report of 185 mph and a gust to 211 mph was received from a NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) elevated station (295 ft) at Chamela-Cuixmala, Mexico near the time of landfall. This observation should be considered unofficial until it has been quality controlled. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Now that Patricia has moved inland, while the coastal threat is decreasing, strong and damaging winds, especially at higher elevations, will persist through Saturday morning. 2. Very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.2N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1200Z 22.7N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart
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