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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-11-09 15:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091438 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Kate has strengthened a little. The advisory intensity of 40 kt is based on peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt, and SFMR observations of 40-42 kt. Kate is a very small tropical cyclone, with its associated central dense overcast extending no more than about 40 n mi from the center. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Kate is moving northwestward at about 13 kt, steered between a subtropical high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A northward turn is forecast to occur tonight when the storm is near the northwestern Bahamas. After that time, an acceleration to the northeast is expected when the cyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official NHC track forecast is nudged to the right of the previous one at the 36- and 48-h forecast times, to come into better agreement with the consensus aids. Kate is likely to strengthen some more during the next day or so while it remains in a low- to moderate-shear environment and over warm water. The official intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is near the low end of the guidance envelope. All of the models show Kate becoming absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.5N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 26.1N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.7N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 31.6N 72.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 34.4N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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kate
Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-11-09 09:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090839 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Deep convection has increased to the north and east of the depression's center during the past few hours, with Dvorak estimates now T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Based on these data, the cyclone is maintained as a 30-kt depression. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression later this morning and should provide a more definitive assessment of the cyclone's intensity. Warm ocean waters and low vertical shear should support some strengthening of the cyclone during the next day or two before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the western Atlantic by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is very close to a consensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The center of the depression has been moving a little bit faster and toward the west-northwest overnight, and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move around the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic, and its motion should turn back to the northwest later today and north-northwest by tonight. While the dynamical models all show this general scenario, the depression is already out of sync with the dynamical model trackers and more in line with the simpler BAM trajectory models. Therefore, the official forecast has been placed to the west of the various consensus models during the first 24-36 hours to lean closer to the BAM models and the solutions observed in the dynamical model fields. After 36 hours, the BAM and dynamical models are in much better agreement, and the official forecast is closer to the consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.6N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.7N 75.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 30.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 33.4N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Brennan
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-11-09 03:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090245 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 Geostationary satellite imagery during the late afternoon showed that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area near the southeastern Bahamas had become better defined. During the past few hours, thunderstorm activity has increased over the eastern portion of the circulation, and the system has acquired enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression, the twelfth of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is based a data T-number of 2.0 from TAFB and recent ship observations. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression Monday morning and should provide a better assessment of cyclone's intensity. The initial motion estimate is 305/12 kt. The depression is forecast to move northwestward tonight, then turn north- northwestward and northward on Monday and Monday night while it moves around the western portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over the west-central Atlantic. The tropical cyclone should accelerate northeastward on Tuesday when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the model envelope. The depression is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next day or two. This should allow for strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the intensity consensus model IVCN. The small tropical cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure area and frontal system that will be moving off the southeast United States coast in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.0N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 26.2N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 29.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 32.2N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0000Z...Absorbed by extratropical low $$ Forecaster Brown
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Time to shift climate change discussion to policy solutions
2015-11-08 13:53:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
Missoulian: Controversy is essential in a functioning democracy. You may be in favor (or against) background checks for gun purchases in Missoula or have a strong opinion on the school bond issue. The reality TV that fronts as our primary presidential debates sparks lively conversations around the social media water cooler. Climate change dialogue, however, is different. The discourse should be around policy, and not about whether climate change is happening or not. We have somehow digressed, responding to...
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Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 51
2015-10-27 15:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271435 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system is devoid of deep convection, so Olaf is no longer a tropical cyclone and advisories are being discontinued at this time. Data from a recent scatterometer overpass showed that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated, but the system is still producing winds to gale force. With the lack of convection or strong baroclinic forcing, the cyclone is likely to gradually spin down and dissipate in a few days. The post-tropical cyclone has been moving east-northeastward, or 060/9 kt. Global models show a low-level ridge building to the north of the system over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the southwest and west-southwest by tomorrow. The official forecast also shows this turn, although it is not quite as fast as the dynamical model consensus. For additional information on Olaf, please see High SeasForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 26.7N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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