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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2015-11-10 17:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101646 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 Corrected forecast motion at the end of the period to northeastward in third paragraph. Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb. Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature, with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation, consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over the cyclone. Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5 days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of 035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a faster northeastward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2015-11-10 15:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101451 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb. Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature, with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation, consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over the cyclone. Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5 days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of 035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a faster northwestward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2015-11-10 09:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100856 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 Kate's convective structure hasn't changed much from the previous advisory. The center is located beneath a small central dense overcast with broken banding over the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak numbers of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. A NOAA P-3 aircraft recently reached Kate, and on its first pass through the center it reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt and surface winds between 40-45 kt. In addition, the central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb. The plane will be making a few more passes through the center during the next couple of hours. Although vertical shear is forecast to increase during the next couple of days and Kate will be moving over water colder than 26C within the next 12-24 hours, all of the reliable intensity models indicate that the cyclone should strengthen and reach hurricane strength by 36 hours, if not sooner. After 36 hours, the shear is expected to increase to nearly 50 kt, which should cause Kate to become post-tropical. One significant change on this cycle is that the 00Z GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and to some extent the ECMWF now show Kate becoming the dominant low pressure area over the north Atlantic in a few days instead of being absorbed by a separate extratropical low. Therefore, the updated NHC is now extended beyond 48 hours, showing Kate as a growing extratropical low over the north Atlantic on days 3-5. Kate is accelerating northward with an initial motion of 010/15 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and east-northeastward and accelerate further through Wednesday as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Kate is likely to slow down around day 3 when it becomes extratropical, but it should resume a faster northeastward motion toward the far north Atlantic on days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is primarily an update of the previous forecast through 48 hours, and the extended extratropical portion beyond day 3 is generally a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 31.0N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 33.9N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 36.6N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 39.2N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0600Z 43.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z 46.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0600Z 53.0N 27.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 5

2015-11-10 03:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100236 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Kate's cloud pattern is well organized this evening. The center is located beneath a small central dense overcast feature with prominent banding features noted over the northern semicircle. Earlier NOAA reconnaissance data indicated that Kate had strengthened to about 45 kt. Since the plane departed the storm, the satellite presentation has continued to improve, so the intensity is increased to 50 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within a low-to-moderate shear environment and over warm water for another 12 to 18 hours, which should allow for additional strengthening. It is even possible that Kate will become a hurricane on Tuesday before the southwesterly shear becomes strong and the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Kate is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days and is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone and frontal system over the north Atlantic by day 3. Kate has made the expected northward turn, and will be steered northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic and a short-wave trough that is approaching the east coast of the United States. The cyclone should accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward by Tuesday night as it becomes embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies. The updated track is similar to the previous advisory and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.2N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 29.5N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 35.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 38.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-11-09 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092032 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Kate remains a compact tropical storm, consisting of a small central dense overcast and fragmented bands mainly to the north and east of the center. Earlier radar images from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that a partial convective inner core was forming. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory, based on the earlier reconnaissance data, but the system could be a little stronger. The NOAA hurricane hunters will be investigating Kate shortly, and will provide a better assessment of its intensity. The tropical storm is embedded in a low wind shear environment and over warm waters. These favorable conditions should allow the storm to strengthen during the next day or so. After that time, an increase in shear and cooler waters along the expected track should cause the strengthening trend to end. Kate is expected to be absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. The new official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and remains on the low end of the model guidance envelope. Kate continues to move northwestward near the eastern edge of the Bahamas. The main steering features consist of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. A northward turn is expected tonight when the storm reaches the western periphery of the ridge, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday when the cyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 27.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 30.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 33.6N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 36.8N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

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