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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-11-21 09:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210836 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 Rick has been moving quickly west-northwestward into a drier air mass, with all its associated deep convection lagging to the south and southeast of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, but if the convective organization doesn't improve, these numbers are likely to fall below the tropical storm threshold soon. Vertical shear is expected to increase substantially in about 36 hours, and the cyclone will continue to move toward cooler water and into an environment where the mid-level relative humidity is less than 50 percent. Therefore, Rick will likely weaken to a tropical depression sometime during the next 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low by 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. A mid-level ridge extending westward from southern and central Mexico is steering Rick west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/10 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough located between 125W and 140W is expected to move eastward and erode the western extent of the ridge during the next day or two, causing Rick to slow down and turn northwestward. After 48 hours, the remnant low should turn northward and slow down further in a weaker lower-tropospheric flow regime. No changes were required to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new one is close to the multi-model consensus of the dynamical models, with extra weight given to the typically skillful ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 16.9N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 19.0N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.1N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0600Z 21.8N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-11-21 03:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 Rick remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the northwest of a small area of deep convection. The initial wind speed estimate remains 35 kt, following the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system were a little weaker. The continued influence of dry stable air and an increase in shear should prevent strengthening, or cause some weakening, of Rick during the next day or so. In about 2 days, Rick is forecast to become a remnant low when it is expected to be over cool waters and in hostile atmospheric conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest consensus prediction. Satellite fixes indicate that the center of Rick has moved a little to the north and is slightly faster than the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. A motion toward the west-northwest to northwest is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. After that time, the shallow cyclone will likely drift northwestward or northward when it becomes embedded in weak steering currents. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly to the north of the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise largely an update. This forecast is in best agreement with GFEX, a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.7N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.0N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 17.4N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 19.1N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z 21.0N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 21.8N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Example: ONI I & R Center - Racial Equity Plan discussion, Aug. 27, 2015
2015-11-21 01:14:49| PortlandOnline
ONI's Information and Referral Center's initial discussion/brainstorm of Racial Equity Plan action ideas. Word Document, 15kbCategory: City of Portland and ONI Roadmap resources
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-11-20 15:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 Rick's convective pattern remains rather unimpressive, with some ragged banding in the western semicircle and a small area of more concentrated convection south of the estimated center position. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. While Rick is still situated over warm waters in a low shear environment, mid- level dry air and relatively meager instability appear to be limiting intensification. All of the intensity guidance suggests only modest strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours before the shear increases by 48 hours. The increasing shear and a track over cooler waters should result in Rick weakening to a remnant low by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/10. Rick is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours while being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southwestern Mexico. After that time, the ridge will weaken as a deep-layer trough amplifies to the northwest of the tropical cyclone, and Rick should recurve late in the period, albeit as a shallow cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one through 48 hours and then is a little to the left and slower, trending toward the weaker ECMWF solution. The official forecast is much slower than the latest GFS solution at days 3 through 5, which appears too strong with Rick at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.1N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 17.3N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.8N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 18.6N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-11-20 09:44:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200844 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 Rick is sending mixed signals tonight with regard to its organization and intensity. On one hand, the convective banding is a little better defined, and Dvorak T-numbers are now T3.0 from SAB and T2.5 from TAFB. On the other hand, recent scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, with the tropical-storm-force winds confined to a small area west of the center. The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward across central Mexico is forecast to build farther westward over the Pacific waters during the next 24 hours, which should keep the cyclone on a west- northwestward course for the next couple of days. By Sunday, the western extent of the ridge will be eroded by a shortwave trough, causing Rick to turn gradually northwestward and northward on days 3-5. The track models all agree on this general scenario, but the overall guidance envelope has shifted westward from the previous cycle, especially beyond 36 hours. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is also shifted westward and lies very close to the TVCE model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. Deep-layer shear near Rick is very low at the moment and should remain generally light for the next 36-48 hours. In addition, sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm for intensification. However, a major limiting factor appears to be the presence of mid-level dry air, with the 700-500 mb relative humidity expected to remain around 50 percent for the next few days. Therefore, only slight strengthening is anticipated in the short term. After 48 hours, a marked increase in southwesterly shear should cause Rick to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low, possibly as early as 72 hours, when the associated deep convection is sheared away from the low-level center. The latest global models suggest that the remnant low may now last through 120 hours. There is not much spread among the intensity models, and the official intensity forecast mainly follows the IVCN model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.5N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.1N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 17.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.1N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 22.5N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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