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Post-Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 42
2015-10-08 04:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080235 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that the system no longer resembles a tropical cyclone, with a disorganized area of multi-layered cloudiness sheared off well to the northeast of the ill-defined low-level center. However, model analyses and surface data indicate that the cyclone is not yet embedded within a frontal zone, and therefore is not extratropical at this time. Nonetheless, since the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone, Joaquin is being declared as a post- tropical cyclone, and advisories are being terminated. Cyclone phase space analyses from Florida State University indicate that the system will become extratropical in about 12 hours, and this is also shown in the official forecast. The current intensity is set at 55 kt in agreement with a recent scatterometer overpass. Global models show a gradual spindown of the cyclone over the next several days, and so does the official forecast. Post-tropical Joaquin continues to move rapidly toward the east, or 080/30 kt, while embedded in strong mid-latitude westerlies. The steering current is forecast to gradually weaken as a mid-level trough deepens near the Greenwich meridian, and the cyclone should move at a progressively slower forward speed over the period. In 2-3 days, the system is forecast to turn southeastward ahead of the abovementioned trough. There is fairly good agreement among the global models on this scenario. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are primarily based upon guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 42.0N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0000Z 42.8N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 42.5N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 42.5N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 42.0N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 40.5N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 39.0N 10.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 41
2015-10-07 22:33:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 072033 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 Joaquin has begun its transition into an extratropical cyclone. The cyclone's cloud pattern has become rather asymmetric, with the center partially exposed on the west side of weakening deep convection. In addition, cold air is wrapping into the western periphery of the circulation, with a warm frontal band becoming better defined well northeast of the center. Earlier ASCAT data still showed a large area of 55 to 60 kt winds, so the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt. The storm should gradually lose strength while it moves over progressively colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep convection should disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, and Joaquin is expected to become post-tropical at that time. Global models are in good agreement on the cyclone becoming a large extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to form near the center. The official intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and remains in close agreement with the GFS forecast. Joaquin is speeding eastward at 32 kt, embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge, which should keep the cyclone moving to the east or east-northeast at a slower forward speed for another day or two. Thereafter, the cyclone should slow down even more and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe. The guidance continues to migrate southward, and the official forecast is moved in that direction, near a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the ECMWF models. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 41.5N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 42.0N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1800Z 42.7N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 43.6N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 43.8N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 43.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 41.5N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Mixed Use Zones Discussion Draft Information Sessions
2015-10-07 20:42:30| PortlandOnline
Dates and locations of Discussion Draft Info Sessions PDF Document, 872kbCategory: Phase 3 Zoning Code and Map Development
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mixed
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Mixed Use Zones Discussion Draft Summary
2015-10-07 20:42:08| PortlandOnline
Summary of concepts for draft zoning code and map changes PDF Document, 1,341kbCategory: Phase 3 Zoning Code and Map Development
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summary
mixed
draft
Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 40
2015-10-07 16:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 071443 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 Satellite images indicate that Joaquin continues to slowly weaken. The low-level center is now about half a degree west of the mid-level circulation, with an area of deep convection noted. Dvorak estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 60 kt. A gradual spin-down of the cyclone is expected while Joaquin moves over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep convection should probably disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical at that time. The cyclone will likely become a more classic extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to form near the center. The official intensity forecast is very close to the previous one, and is in closest agreement with the GFS forecast. Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge. This motion should continue for another 24 hours or so. After that time, the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone should decelerate and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe. The official forecast is adjusted southward, and is near a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF models. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 41.0N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 41.8N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 42.6N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 09/0000Z 43.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 44.2N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 43.5N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 42.5N 11.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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