je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 33
2015-10-05 22:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052050 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 Joaquin's cloud pattern has actually improved somewhat since the previous advisory with a cloud-filled eye having briefly appeared in visible satellite imagery. Also, the eye has remained distinct on the Bermuda radar at an altitude above 32,000 feet. Satellite intensity estimates are T4.5/77 kt from SAB, T4.3/72 kt from the NHC AODT technique, and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB. Based on the distinct eye feature noted in visible satellite imagery and radar data, the intensity is being maintained at 75 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also supported by dropsonde data from the NASA WB-57 aircraft, which has been conducting research in Joaquin for the Office of Naval Operation's Tropical Cyclone Intensity experiment. The initial motion estimate is 030/10 kt. Joaquin is rounding the northwestern periphery of a weak ridge located to its southeast, and will be entering the faster mid-latitude westerlies by Tuesday morning. The result should be a gradual turn toward the northeast accompanied by a modest increase in forward speed tonight and Tuesday, followed by more significant acceleration toward the east-northeast at forward speeds of near 30 kt by Wednesday. The official forecast track is a tad to the left of the previous advisory track, and basically lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope through 36 hours. At 48-120 hours, the extratropical forecast track is based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain at less than 20 kt for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for Joaquin to only slightly weaken. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast by the global and regional models to increase to more than 30 kt when Joaquin will be moving over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures. The expected result should be steady weakening and a transition to a large and expanding extratropical low pressure system over the much cooler waters of the north Atlantic by 48 hours. However, the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting that Joaquin could get a baroclinic boost as it interacts with a frontal system and strong jetstream and, as a result, the intensity forecast does not show the typical rapid decay rate of a tropical cyclone moving over 17C-20C SSTs on days 3-5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the intensity consensus model IVCN through 36 hours, and then is based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 35.8N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 38.7N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 40.0N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 45.6N 20.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 48.0N 14.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 31
2015-10-05 10:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050854 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 The weakening that Joaquin has experienced during the past day or so appears to have temporarily stopped overnight. Deep convection has increased near the center, and an eye has intermittently been seen infrared satellite pictures. The initial wind speed of 75 kt is based on recent Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. Only a slight reduction in strength is expected during the next day or so while Joaquin remains within an area of light to moderate vertical wind shear and over sea surface temperatures of around 27C. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause gradual weakening. Joaquin is expected to interact with a baroclinic zone in a couple of days and become an extratropical cyclone within 72 hours. The global models slowly weaken the extratropical low as it moves eastward over the central and eastern Atlantic later this week. The initial motion estimate is 025/11 kt. Joaquin should turn northeastward and move at a slightly faster forward speed by tonight as a ridge to the northeast of the hurricane weakens. Joaquin should become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies in 36 to 48 hours and accelerate east-northeastward. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. The track of the extratropical low is a blend of the previous advisory and guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. The tropical storm force wind radii have been expanded outward based on earlier ASCAT data. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 34.1N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 35.4N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 38.6N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 39.9N 50.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 42.0N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 43.5N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 45.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 30
2015-10-05 04:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050233 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with the hurricane have diminished. Microwave imagery indicates that the inner core has become less distinct, although the convective banding features remain well defined. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane reported maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 87 kt over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. This corresponds to an intensity of about 75 kt. Only slight cooling of waters along the path of the cyclone is indicated over the next couple of days, since Joaquin will be moving along the Gulf Stream. Dynamical guidance does not show the vertical shear becoming strong until about 48 hours. Slow weakening is predicted for the next couple of days, in general agreement with the SHIPS guidance. By 72 hours the sea surface temperatures should cool significantly, and the global models depict the system as embedded within a baroclinic zone. Therefore the forecast shows Joaquin becoming extratropical by that time. The initial motion continues to be north-northeastward, or 025/11 kt. A short wave ridge ahead of the hurricane appears to have caused some temporary slowing of the forward motion. In a day or two, the ridge flattens out, and the cyclone should begin to accelerate within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast through 48 hours is close to the multi-model consensus. The track, intensity, and wind radii for 72 hours and beyond are based on the consensus as well as guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for at least the next several hours, with possible winds to hurricane force in squalls especially at elevated locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 33.1N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 34.5N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 36.2N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 37.8N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 39.5N 54.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 42.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 47.0N 16.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Land cleanup, land plans up for discussion Updated at
2015-10-05 04:01:03| Waste Management - Topix.net
The council plans to continue discussion surrounding the cleanup of about 20 acres of Union Pacific Railroad property in Ashland. Based on a record of decision from 2001, UPRR is in voluntary cleanup status with the Department of Environmental Quality regarding the site, which is contaminated with petroleum waste and heavy metals.
Tags: updated
land
discussion
plans
Land cleanup, land plans up for discussion Updated at
2015-10-05 03:27:49| Railroads - Topix.net
The council plans to continue discussion surrounding the cleanup of about 20 acres of Union Pacific Railroad property in Ashland. Based on a record of decision from 2001, UPRR is in voluntary cleanup status with the Department of Environmental Quality regarding the site, which is contaminated with petroleum waste and heavy metals.
Tags: updated
land
discussion
plans
Sites : [942] [943] [944] [945] [946] [947] [948] [949] [950] [951] [952] [953] [954] [955] [956] [957] [958] [959] [960] [961] next »