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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-09 10:47:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE EXPECTED TO MEANDER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 9 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.3, -65.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-10-09 04:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090240 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 Strong convection continues to fire near the center of Nicole, although microwave data still suggest the center is on the northern edge of the convection. Dvorak estimates range from 37 to 55 kt for this advisory, so the initial wind speed is held at 45 kt. Northerly wind shear is forecast to continue for the next couple of days, perhaps at a slightly weaker value than the current 35 kt. By about Tuesday, almost all of the global models drop the shear significantly, which will probably allow Nicole to restrengthen since it will be moving over very warm waters. The guidance is more insistent on this cycle that Nicole will become a hurricane again by day 4, and the official forecast goes with this scenario. The initial motion is 180/4, a little to the left of earlier. Nicole should meander for a day or so before a ridge to the east builds, causing the tropical cyclone to move slowly northward until about day 2. Some interaction with the remnants of Matthew are likely to steer Nicole to the northwest for about a day until Nicole turns back to the north and northeast in increasing southwesterly flow. Models are in good agreement on this unusual Atlantic track scenario, so very little change was made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 24.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.0N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.3N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 30.5N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 34.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2016-10-09 04:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 090239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 20(47) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 20
2016-10-09 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 090239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.7W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.7W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 65.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 34.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-09 04:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE STILL LINGERING WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 8 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.4, -65.7 with movement S at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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