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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-10-05 04:44:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050244 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.1N 62.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.7N 64.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.5N 64.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.3N 63.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 62.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 61.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-04 23:12:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 20:37:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 21:06:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-10-04 22:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042037 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since earlier today. All of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle of the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly strong northwesterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 45 kt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data. Nicole is likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next several days, which should eventually result in weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. The tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt. Nicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of days, to the southwest of a mid-level high. Later in the forecast period, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and this would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days. The official track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction. This is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few days, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 24.1N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 26.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 29.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 30.0N 63.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-10-04 22:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 042037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-04 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 4 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.1, -61.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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