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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 11
2016-10-06 22:41:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 062041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 ...NICOLE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 65.1W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 65.1 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through Friday morning. A meandering motion, but generally toward the south or southeast, is expected later Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some additional strengthening is expected tonight, weakening is forecast by late Friday through Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-10-06 22:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 062040 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 65.1W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 65.1W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.9N 65.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.6N 65.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 64.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 65.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.4N 66.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 65.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-06 19:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2016 17:45:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2016 17:44:34 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-10-06 19:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061744 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 This is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane. The system's cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this morning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images. The intensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Nicole has been able to strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt. Since the hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional strengthening seems likely. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that time. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM guidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2 models thereafter. Little or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous regular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged. Steering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to 24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next several days. Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.9N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-10-06 19:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 061744 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1800 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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