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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-10-05 10:28:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050828 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 61.8W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 61.8W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.8N 64.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.7N 64.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.4N 64.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.0N 62.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.3N 62.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 30.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 61.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-05 04:46:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 02:45:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 02:45:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-10-05 04:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050245 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 Nicole has developed a comma-shaped cloud pattern this evening, with the low-level center estimated to be about midway between the end of a long curved band and the end of an associated dry slot. Dvorak classifications are T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and thus the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Although over waters around 29 deg C during the next few days, Nicole is forecast to be affected by strong northwesterly to northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Matthew to its east. While the shear may not be strong enough to induce much weakening, it very likely would prevent Nicole from intensifying. By about 72 hours, the northerly shear should further increase, and it is possible that Nicole would degenerate into a remnant low by that time or shortly thereafter. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one, and is close to the statistical model output that shows no change in strength through 36 hours and then weakening. Nicole is shown to maintain tropical cyclone status throughout the forecast period out of respect for the ECMWF solution, which shows this possibility. The initial motion is 300/05. Nicole is expected to move west-northwestward and then northward around a mid-level high located east of Bermuda for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a mid-tropospheric cyclone near the northeastern United States coast is forecast to dive southeastward toward Nicole, which should cause the cyclone to turn eastward or even southeastward from 72-96 hours. Should the cyclone survive, a turn toward the north is likely by 120 hours ahead of another shortwave trough moving of the United States east coast. The new track forecast is shifted to the east after 36 hours in response to the track guidance, which has moved in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 24.2N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 25.1N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 26.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 27.7N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 28.5N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 28.3N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.3N 62.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-05 04:45:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 4 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.2, -61.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-10-05 04:45:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 050245 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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