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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-10-07 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 070236 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 65.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 65.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.3N 65.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 64.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.5N 64.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-06 23:12:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2016 20:42:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2016 21:06:09 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-10-06 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062041 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern has continued to increase in organization this afternoon. A small central dense overcast has become even more symmetric during the last few hours, with an eye intermittently visible. Dvorak classifications of T4.5 from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT values support increasing the intensity to 75 kt. Nicole is being affected by northerly shear associated with outflow of Hurricane Matthew, but it is suspected that this shear is confined to a narrow layer at upper levels since the cyclone has been unexpectedly strengthening. Given the current trends, additional intensification seems possible, at least during the short term. However, a mid- to upper-level trough digging over the central Atlantic should cause the shear over Nicole to greatly increase in 1 to 2 days and result in some weakening. There could also be some interaction of Nicole with a piece of the trough that breaks off in 2 to 3 days, as shown in the global models, but it is unclear how this could affect its intensity. The large-scale environment is forecast to potentially become more conducive for re- intensification by days 4 or 5, and some restrengthening is shown around that time. The new intensity forecast is above the multi-model consensus and higher than the previous one at the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 330/06. Steering currents are likely to collapse very soon as Nicole finds itself in a col area, making an erratic northward motion likely for the next 12 hours or so. A blocking ridge in the wake of the aforementioned trough should then impart a slow southerly motion for a couple of days. By 72 hours, a turn back toward the northwest or north-northwest is forecast as a mid-level high builds to the east of Nicole. Although there is considerable spread in the model guidance, this general scenario is shown except for the ECMWF, which is well to the right of the other model solutions through the next 3 days. The new track forecast is of low confidence, is faster than the previous one, and is between the previous forecast and an average of the ECMWF/GFS output. Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 27.5N 65.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 27.6N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 27.0N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 26.5N 64.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 26.4N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 27.4N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 29.4N 67.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-10-06 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 062041 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-06 22:41:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 6 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.5, -65.1 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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