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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-06 19:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Oct 6 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.3, -65.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 10
2016-10-06 19:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 061743 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016 ...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 64.9 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today. A slow and meandering motion is forecast tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely over the nest day or so, followed by slow weakening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-10-06 19:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 061743 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1800 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 65.0W AT 06/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 65.0W AT 06/1800Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.9N 65.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-06 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2016 14:35:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2016 14:32:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-10-06 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061435 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since the last advisory, and consists of a ragged CDO with some banding features over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is restricted over the northern semicircle of the storm. Dvorak classifications are unchanged from SAB and TAFB, yielding intensity estimates of 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, so the advisory intensity is held at 60 kt. Although Nicole could reach hurricane strength today, increasing north-northwesterly shear should lead to a slow weakening trend, beginning tomorrow. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest LGEM and SHIPS guidance. The forward motion is slowing, and the motion is now estimated to be about 325/5 kt. A mid-level high pressure area to the northeast of Nicole should quickly collapse while a shortwave trough drops southward into the area. This will leave the tropical cyclone in weak steering currents within the next day or so. A high pressure area is forecast to build to the west and northwest of Nicole during the next couple of days, and this should force some southward component of motion. Overall, however, the official forecast, like the previous one, shows little overall motion throughout the period. This is in reasonable agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 26.8N 64.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 27.5N 65.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.8N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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