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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 8

2016-10-06 10:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060841 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016 Nicole is maintaining its intensity. The cloud pattern has generally changed little since the previous advisory, and it consists of a central dense overcast feature with some curved bands to the east of the center. Earlier microwave data did show a mid-level eye, but this feature is not apparent in geostationary satellite images. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 4.0/65 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively, and therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt. Although not explicitly forecast, Nicole could reach hurricane strength today before it moves into an area of stronger shear on Friday. The expected increase in shear and a drier air mass should lead to a slow weakening trend beginning in about 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is in line with the bulk of the guidance. Nicole is still moving northwestward at 8 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A trough currently off the coast of New England is expected to move southeastward and erode the ridge. This pattern change will likely leave Nicole in weak steering currents beginning in about 24 hours. As a result, the storm is expected to move slowly and erratically throughout much of the forecast period. The guidance is very divergent and shows solutions in nearly every direction. The NHC official track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Given the large model spread, the NHC track forecast is of low confidence. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were modified based on an ASCAT pass around 0100 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 26.5N 64.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 27.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 27.8N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 27.2N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.7N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 29.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-06 10:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NICOLE HOLDING STEADY JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 6 the center of NICOLE was located near 26.5, -64.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2016-10-06 10:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 060841 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 8

2016-10-06 10:40:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060840 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 64.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 64.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.8N 65.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.8N 65.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.2N 64.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 64.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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