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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2016-10-06 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 061433 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-06 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NICOLE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 6 the center of NICOLE was located near 26.8, -64.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 9

2016-10-06 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 061432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016 ...NICOLE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 64.8W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 64.8 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today. A slow and meandering motion is forecast tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with some weakening anticipated by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 9

2016-10-06 16:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 061432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 64.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 64.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.5N 65.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.8N 65.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 64.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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