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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-05 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 20:31:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 20:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-10-05 22:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052031 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016 A 1846 UTC SSMI microwave pass showed that Nicole has a well-defined mid-level eye with the deepest convection to the southeast of the center. Nicole's visible satellite presentation has also improved, and there has been a recent burst of convection right over the center. Dvorak intensity estimates are now T3.0 from SAB and T3.5 from TAFB, so the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. It's often difficult to estimate the strength of small cyclones like Nicole based on satellite alone, and it's possible that the intensity could be higher. As discussed this morning, Nicole is located beneath an upper-level shear axis, so the vertical shear directly over the cyclone is actually not that high. Since Nicole could stay in this type of environment for another 12-24 hours, and due to the cyclone's small size, the maximum winds could increase in the short term. The new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous forecast during the first 24 hours, and it is above all of the guidance during that period. In fact, it would not be surprising if Nicole was to become a hurricane some time soon, especially since it already has a eye in microwave imagery. After 24 hours, a larger area of strong upper-level winds should overspread Nicole, and the maximum winds should therefore decrease through the end of the forecast period. The initial motion remains 300/7 kt. Nicole's forward motion is expected to slow down to a crawl by 36 hours, and after that time, there is considerable spread in the guidance. For example, by day 5, the ECMWF pulls Nicole well northward, absorbed by Matthew and a nearby frontal zone, while the UKMET, HWRF, and GFDN models push Nicole southward or southwestward. Given this uncertainty, the NHC track forecast continues to show a slow meandering motion on days 2-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 25.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 26.3N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 27.4N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 27.9N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 27.7N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 27.0N 64.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 27.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-10-05 22:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 052031 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 6(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-10-05 22:31:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 052030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 63.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 63.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 63.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.3N 64.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.4N 65.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.9N 65.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.7N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 27.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 63.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-05 22:30:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 5 the center of NICOLE was located near 25.3, -63.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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