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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 47
2014-08-24 16:47:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 241447 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Karina's deep convection has expanded some this morning, and the strong temperature gradient in the infrared imagery on the east side of the cyclone has weakened. Both would be indicative of the large vertical shear diminishing some, consistent with the CIMSS analysis of 5-10 kt shear. The GFS-based SHIPS shear, on the other hand, is diagnosed as being about 20 kt. The intensity estimates widely range from 45-75 kt, depending on whether a shear or embedded center pattern is used in the Dvorak technique. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 55 kt, but this estimate has more than the usual uncertainty. Even if the shear has subsided some currently, this should pick up more shortly as the outflow from major hurricane Marie affects Karina. The combination of strong vertical shear, marginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to at least a gradual - if not quick - weakening of the tropical cyclone. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models and is quite similar to that from the previous advisory. An ASCAT pass from late last night indicated tropical-storm-force winds extending out about 60 nm on the eastern semi-circle. The initial size is assessed the same as that previously, and a gradual reduction in tropical-storm-force wind radii is anticipated as the cyclone weakens. Karina is being steered east-northeastward at 8 kt around the large circulation of post-tropical Lowell to its north-northeast. The absence of microwave imagery over Karina and the lack of visible imagery before sunrise makes the current position and motion somewhat unclear. The steering influence of Lowell will diminish in about a day as the distance between the systems increases, and Karina should respond by slowing down and turning gradually to the east-southeast. In about two days, Karina's track will mainly be influenced by the approaching very large and strong Marie. Karina should be accelerated along toward the east until it becomes absorbed within Marie in about three to four days. The forecast track is based upon a blend of the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models and is slightly faster than that issued in the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 18.0N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 18.0N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 17.8N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2014-08-24 16:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 241446 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-24 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM KARINA MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 the center of KARINA was located near 18.0, -131.4 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 47
2014-08-24 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 241446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM KARINA MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 131.4W ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.4 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND KARINA SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 47
2014-08-24 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 241446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.4W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.4W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 130.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.8N 127.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 127.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 131.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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