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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 46
2014-08-24 10:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 240836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 132.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 132.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 128.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 132.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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Hurricane KARINA Graphics
2014-08-24 05:16:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 02:42:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 03:07:32 GMT
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 45
2014-08-24 04:49:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240249 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 The appearance of Karina in visible and infrared satellite imagery has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours. The hurricane no longer has an eye, and increasing shear is beginning to restrict the upper-level outflow in the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and a decrease in satellite intensity estimates, the intensity has been lowered to 65 kt. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. Steady weakening is still expected for the next few days, particularly in light of the fact that Karina recently passed over the 25 deg SST isotherm. The dynamical models are in good agreement that only a low-level circulation will remain in about 72 hours. Karina continues to move toward the northeast at about 7 kt, and this general motion should continue for the next day or two while the cyclone remains embedded within a large area of southwesterly flow to the south of Lowell. After 48 hours, the spread in the track guidance remains large. Most of the dynamical models have converged this cycle on the general solution that Karina will move close enough to the circulation of Marie to be advected southward before being absorbed or sheared. However, the extent and timing of this interaction remains highly uncertain. Since the track guidance has been exceptionally inconsistent from run to run over the last several forecast cycles, the official forecast has been conservatively nudged only slightly toward the southeast at days 3 and 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 17.8N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 18.0N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 18.2N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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Hurricane KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2014-08-24 04:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 240244 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-24 04:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE KARINA BEGINS TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 23 the center of KARINA was located near 17.8, -132.8 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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