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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-24 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 08:38:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 08:37:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 46
2014-08-24 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Karina has the classic appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone, with a strong IR brightness temperature gradient on the east side of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease and the initial intensity has subsequently been lowered to 60 kt. Karina is turning toward the east and the initial motion is estimated to be 65/6, though the motion is a little more uncertain for this forecast since the low-level center has become obscured. A general eastward motion is still expected for the next 36 to 48 hours hours. After that, the dynamical models have finally come into complete agreement that Karina will turn more toward the south once it begins to interact with, and circumnavigate, the large circulation of Hurricane Marie. Shortly after this interaction begins, Karina will be assimilated or completely strained out by the larger vortex. The official forecast has been shifted south, but still shows fairly slow movement at days 3 and 4 since the model spread remains large. Given the decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear that dominate the environment around Karina, continued weakening appears to be inevitable. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Karina will become a remnant low within the next 72 hours. No major changes were made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the intensity consensus, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.9N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.0N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-24 10:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 the center of KARINA was located near 17.9, -132.2 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 46
2014-08-24 10:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 240836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...KARINA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 132.2W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1480 MI...2385 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.2 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2014-08-24 10:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 240836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN
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