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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 19

2018-09-12 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 932 WTNT33 KNHC 120232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...HELENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 35.4W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 35.4 West. Helene is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by Thursday. Helene is forecast to accelerate and turn toward the northeast by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is likely over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 19

2018-09-12 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 931 WTNT23 KNHC 120232 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 35.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 35.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 36.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 37.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.6N 37.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.6N 37.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.7N 35.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 40.5N 31.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 23.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 35.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Helene Graphics

2018-09-11 22:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 20:35:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 20:35:03 GMT

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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-09-11 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 613 WTNT43 KNHC 112032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 Helene is feeling the effects of cooler waters, and the convection surrounding the distinct eye is weaker that earlier today. Dvorak numbers are decreasing, and only support an initial intensity of 90 kt. Both cooler waters and high shear will continue to impact the hurricane, and Helene will probably weaken to a tropical storm in about 36 hours or so. The NHC forecast calls for a decrease in the winds at the same rate as the intensity consensus aids. Helene is already on the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, and it is now moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 10 kt. Global models continue to develop a large mid-level trough over eastern Atlantic, and the flow associated with this trough should steer Helene north-northwestward and northward during the next day to so. The cyclone should then recurve northeastward with an increase in forward speed and by Friday, a weakened Helene should be approaching the Azores. At the very long range, the cyclone will begin to lose tropical characteristics over the even colder waters of the north Atlantic. There has been little change in the track forecast since models have been very consistent with the current solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.2N 34.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 18.3N 36.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 22.3N 37.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.0N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 31.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 39.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 43.5N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)

2018-09-11 22:32:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HELENE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Helene was located near 17.2, -34.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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