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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2018-09-12 22:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 462 FONT13 KNHC 122041 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 14(61) X(61) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)

2018-09-12 22:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HELENE HEADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Helene was located near 21.4, -36.7 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 22

2018-09-12 22:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 425 WTNT33 KNHC 122041 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...HELENE HEADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 36.7W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 36.7 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 22

2018-09-12 22:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 219 WTNT23 KNHC 122040 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 36.7W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 36.7W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 36.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.1N 37.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.0N 37.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.0N 32.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 43.0N 24.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 47.5N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 36.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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