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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-09-12 16:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 130 WTNT43 KNHC 121433 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 The eye has become less distinct, but the overall convective pattern remains well organized and symmetric. Based on the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 80 kt. Most of the guidance show a significant increase in the shear in 24 hours, but the SSTs are not changing much for the next 2 days or so, thus gradual weakening is forecast. After that time, both shear and SSTs will become belligerently unfavorable, resulting in additional weakening. By the end of the forecast period, Helene should have acquired extratropical characteristic. The hurricane is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 kt, embedded in the southerly flow to the east of the digging trough over the central Atlantic. Since the trough is forecast to amplify, Helene will be forced to turn to the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed. The global models remain in fairly good agreement on the current forecast track of Helene, and they all bring the cyclone near the Azores in 3 or 4 days. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.3N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 22.0N 37.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 24.5N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 27.5N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 31.0N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 37.7N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 42.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 47.5N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-09-12 16:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 132 FONT13 KNHC 121432 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 22(37) 1(38) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-12 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Helene was located near 20.3, -36.5 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 21
2018-09-12 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 091 WTNT33 KNHC 121432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...HELENE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 36.5W ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 36.5 West. Helene is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-09-12 16:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 698 WTNT23 KNHC 121432 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 36.5W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 36.5W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 36.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 37.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 37.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.7N 33.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 42.5N 26.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 47.5N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 36.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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