je.st
news
Tag: helene
Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 18
2018-09-11 22:32:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 573 WTNT33 KNHC 112031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 34.9W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 34.9 West. Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on Wednesday. Thereafter, Helene should recurve northeastward with increasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Helene should weaken to a tropical storm on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-09-11 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 276 FONT13 KNHC 112031 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 10(40) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-09-11 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 452 WTNT23 KNHC 112031 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 34.9W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 34.9W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 34.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N 36.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 37.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 39.0N 32.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 43.5N 25.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 34.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Helene Graphics
2018-09-11 16:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 14:43:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 14:43:24 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
hurricane graphics
graphics hurricane
Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-09-11 16:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 859 WTNT43 KNHC 111441 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 It appears that Helene already peaked in intensity earlier this morning with 95 kt. The cloud pattern has not changed much, and still consists of a large eye surrounded by deep convection. However, these convective tops have warmed a little, and consequently Dvorak numbers have remained steady. From now on, Helene will begin to move over increasingly cooler waters, and become embedded within higher shear in about a day. These environmental conditions should result in weakening, and the NHC forecast calls for a decrease in the winds at the same rate as the intensity consensus aids. Helene has turned toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 10 kt. Models continue to erode the ridge to the north of the cyclone, and are also developing a large mid-level trough over eastern Atlantic. This forecast flow pattern will force Helene to turn more toward the north-northwest and north ahead of the trough for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the cyclone will recurve in the mid- latitude westerlies, and will begin to lose tropical characteristics at the very long ranges. Track models are in very good agreement with this solution. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and in between HCCA and the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.5N 34.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.5N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 18.9N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 20.7N 37.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 22.5N 38.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 27.5N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 35.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 40.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] next »