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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2018-09-11 16:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 455 FONT13 KNHC 111441 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)

2018-09-11 16:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HELENE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Helene was located near 16.5, -34.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 17

2018-09-11 16:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 374 WTNT33 KNHC 111440 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...HELENE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 34.3W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 34.3 West. Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north-northwest and northward thereafter. Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin tonight, and Helene is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 17

2018-09-11 16:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 357 WTNT23 KNHC 111440 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 34.3W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 210SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 34.3W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 34.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.9N 36.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.7N 37.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.5N 38.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N 35.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 40.0N 30.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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