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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-09-11 04:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 285 WTNT23 KNHC 110241 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 32.4W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 32.4W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.9W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 34.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.2N 35.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.6N 37.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.1N 38.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.6N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 36.2N 34.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 32.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Helene Graphics
2018-09-10 22:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 20:35:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 21:28:29 GMT
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-09-10 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 089 WTNT43 KNHC 102033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Helene's cloud pattern continues to be well organized with a large eye of about 20 nm in diameter, surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The cyclone's circulation is large with numerous cyclonically curved convective bands, and the outflow is fair in all quadrants. Dvorak classifications have not changed much, and support an initial intensity of 90 kt. Helene has the opportunity to strengthen some during the next 24 hours or so, while the shear is low and the ocean is still relatively warm. After that time, both shear and SSTs will become less favorable and gradual weakening should then begin. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows closely the intensity consensus aids. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 15 kt. Soon, the hurricane will encounter a mid-level trough which the most reliable global models are forming in the eastern Atlantic. This new flow pattern will force Helene to turn to the northwest and north ahead of the developing trough. Track models are quite consistent with this solution and the the spread of the guidance envelope is small through the forecast period. This increases the confidence in the Helene's northward turn, followed by recurvature over the eastern Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 14.9N 31.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 15.5N 33.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 16.4N 35.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 17.5N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 19.0N 38.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.0N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 28.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 34.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-09-10 22:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 734 FONT13 KNHC 102032 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-10 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Helene was located near 14.9, -31.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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