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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-06-30 22:42:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302042 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 ALTHOUGH SITUATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS OF MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT. SINCE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION. EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THANKS TO THE TIMELY ASCAT OVERPASS...A GOOD CENTER FIX WAS OBTAINED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 330/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART. THIS IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.0N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-06-30 22:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 302041 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 2 4 8 18 TROP DEPRESSION 11 12 12 10 18 27 45 TROPICAL STORM 88 75 64 57 62 57 36 HURRICANE 1 11 21 30 15 7 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 10 18 24 13 6 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 5 2 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 18(19) 8(27) 5(32) 4(36) X(36) 1(37) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 14(15) 5(20) 4(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15(21) 7(28) 1(29) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-06-30 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 the center of DALILA was located near 16.2, -103.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 4
2013-06-30 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 302041 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 ...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 103.7W ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE. POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY. RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-06-30 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 302039 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE. POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.7W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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