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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2013-07-02 16:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 021432 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 10 25 45 TROP DEPRESSION 2 10 15 18 35 46 43 TROPICAL STORM 85 76 66 62 50 28 12 HURRICANE 14 12 17 18 5 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 11 14 15 5 1 X HUR CAT 2 1 1 2 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 40KT 30KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)

2013-07-02 16:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DALILA DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 the center of DALILA was located near 17.7, -106.9 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 11

2013-07-02 16:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021431 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 ...DALILA DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 106.9W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DALILA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 11

2013-07-02 16:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 021431 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.4N 107.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.2N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.7N 110.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

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