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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 6A
2013-07-01 13:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 011130 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 500 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 ...DALILA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 105.4W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...BUT DALILA COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING TODAY AND TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT. RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm DALILA Graphics
2013-07-01 11:08:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2013 08:35:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2013 09:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-07-01 10:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010834 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 3 3 10 25 TROP DEPRESSION 6 6 5 14 18 35 47 TROPICAL STORM 91 75 51 61 63 51 27 HURRICANE 3 19 44 23 15 5 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 16 34 19 13 4 1 HUR CAT 2 X 2 7 3 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 2 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 55KT 65KT 55KT 55KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 13(27) 7(34) 1(35) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-07-01 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010834 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY IR IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KNOTS. DALILA STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. NEITHER SHIPS NOR LGEM MODELS ARE VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DALILA...AND IN FACT...THE LATEST HWRF ONLY INCREASES THE WIND SLIGHTLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS...BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SOON FORCE DALILA TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT SINCE SOME MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF DALILA...AND SUGGEST THAT DALILA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NEW DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES...BEYOND 3 DAYS...THAT DALILA INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IF THE TREND TOWARD THE WEST CONTINUES AND DALILA DOES NOT INTENSIFY MUCH MORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO WILL LIKELY NO LONGER BE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.2N 105.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.8N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-01 10:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED BUT STILL HAS A CHANCE TO DO SO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 the center of DALILA was located near 17.2, -105.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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