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Tropical Storm DALILA Graphics
2013-07-01 23:08:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2013 20:49:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2013 21:04:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-07-01 22:48:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012048 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 THE INNER CORE OF DALILA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND UW-CIMSS HAVE CONVERGED TO A CONSENSUS T-NUMBER OF 3.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS LOCATED IN A SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR MAY BE ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS DALILA TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE CENTER OF DALILA HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. MICROWAVE-BASED CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO TURN AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. WHILE THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY HIGH. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A NEARLY DUE SOUTH TRACK...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. THESE DISCREPANCIES APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE VORTEX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER VORTEX...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO VERY HIGH. SINCE DALILA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THAT COUNTRY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.9N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.2N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.5N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.5N 109.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 18.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-07-01 22:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 012046 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 4 9 23 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 7 13 23 34 48 TROPICAL STORM 45 51 61 62 62 52 28 HURRICANE 55 47 31 23 11 5 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 52 41 25 19 10 5 1 HUR CAT 2 3 5 4 3 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 13(28) 13(41) 5(46) 1(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-01 22:46:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA STRENGTHENS WHILE IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 the center of DALILA was located near 17.9, -106.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 8
2013-07-01 22:46:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 012046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 ...DALILA STRENGTHENS WHILE IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 106.5W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DALILA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES...ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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