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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-07-02 10:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020840 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0000-0400 UTC INDICATES THAT DALILA HAS LOST ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTER HAS DECREASED...WITH THE CENTER NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND USING THIS ALONG WITH THE DECREASED ORGANIZATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/4. DALILA IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST...AND A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE LATTER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD DALILA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD...MAKING THIS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAVGEM...GFDL...AND GFDN FORECAST THE STORM TO MOVED NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THE GFS AND THE HWRF FORECAST A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION AND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ON ONE SIDE...THE SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE ECMWF..UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL FORECAST DALILA TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 120 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36-48 HOURS FOLLWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE NEW DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.7N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.7N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.5N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 17.2N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 17.0N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)

2013-07-02 10:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DALLILA WEAKENS AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 the center of DALILA was located near 17.7, -106.8 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 10

2013-07-02 10:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020839 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 ...DALLILA WEAKENS AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 106.8W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 10

2013-07-02 10:38:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020838 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.7N 107.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.7N 107.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.2N 109.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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