je.st
news
Tag: dalila
Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-07-02 04:46:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020245 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 THE CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA HAS GRADUALLY MORPHED INTO A SMALL CDO FEATURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND COLDER ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE CENTER. A 01/1801 UTC TRMM OVERPASS THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALSO REVEALED A CLOSED 10-15 NMI DIAMETER MID-LEVEL EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB REMAIN AT T3.5/55 KT...BUT THE DATA-T NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS 4.0/65 KT. A RECENT CIRA INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 62 KT...ALONG WITH THE TRMM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...JUSTIFIES INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. ALTHOUGH DALILA HAS BEEN INCREASING AT THE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY OR 20 KT EVERY 24 HOURS...THAT INTENSIFICATION TREND IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST AT 12-15 KT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS OF 27-28C SSTS. NOW THAT DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR SINCE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AT ONLY 3-5 UNITS. EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR SO AFTER 24 HOURS...COOLER WATERS AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE INTENSITY MODELS. VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/05 KT. THE EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DALILA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING LARGE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE EAST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AND INFLUENCE BY THE LATTER FEATURE...BOTH THE REASONING AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 18.2N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.4N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.4N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.3N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 18.3N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 18.4N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-07-02 04:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020241 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 4 9 22 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 7 13 23 34 48 TROPICAL STORM 45 50 61 61 62 53 28 HURRICANE 55 48 31 24 11 5 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 52 41 25 20 10 5 1 HUR CAT 2 3 5 4 3 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 11(17) 13(30) 15(45) 5(50) 1(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) 1(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-02 04:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 the center of DALILA was located near 18.2, -106.9 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 9
2013-07-02 04:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020240 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 106.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2013-07-02 04:39:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020239 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 108.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.3N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] next »