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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-07-22 10:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 220832 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 96.6W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 96.6W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.1N 98.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 11.1N 100.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 12.1N 101.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.2N 103.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 16.8N 109.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 96.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Graphics
2017-07-22 04:47:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 02:47:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 03:31:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-22 04:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Recent microwave images suggest that Tropical Depression Nine-E has formed a small inner core with good curvature of the low cloud lines. However, deep convection near this feature is currently minimal, with most of the convection well away from the center over the northwestern quadrant. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-35 kt range, and based on these and the current state of the central convection, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cyclone has good outflow in all directions. The initial motion is 280/12. The depression is south of a mid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the northeastern Pacific just west of the Baja California peninsula. This pattern should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next three days or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to strengthen a little, which should give the tropical cyclone a more westward motion. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is similar to the old forecast. This forecast, which lies just north of the various consensus models, keeps the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico at this time. The environment looks very favorable for strengthening, with the depression forecast to be in light vertical shear and over waters of 28-29C for at least the next 4 days. Based on this, a period of rapid intensification seems likely, but when this will occur is not clear. The intensity guidance shows generally slow strengthening for the next 36 h, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is not unusually high through 36 h. However, the aforementioned inner core suggests that rapid intensification could begin if the convection concentrates around this feature. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is changed little since the previous advisory, showing the system becoming a hurricane just before 48 h and getting to near major hurricane strength by the end of the period. This forecast is above the guidance through 72 h, then is in good agreement with the SHIPS model. It is possible that the current forecast intensities may be too high during the first 36 h and not high enough later in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 9.4N 95.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 9.7N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 10.7N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 11.8N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 12.8N 102.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 15.0N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 16.5N 108.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-07-22 04:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220240 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 61(70) 8(78) 1(79) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 9(44) X(44) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) X(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 2(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) 10N 100W 34 1 39(40) 15(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 10N 100W 50 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 10N 100W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 95W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 13(42) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 32(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-22 04:40:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 the center of NINE-E was located near 9.4, -95.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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