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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-07-21 22:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 212046 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 14(66) 4(70) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) 2(38) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 5(20) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 4(21) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 2(17) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 1(16) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 10N 100W 34 X 21(21) 40(61) 3(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) 10N 100W 50 X 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 10N 100W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 8(21) 3(24) X(24) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 10N 95W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 12(31) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-07-21 22:46:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 212045 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 94.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 94.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 9.3N 96.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.0N 98.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 11.4N 100.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 12.5N 102.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.0N 94.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Graphics
2017-07-21 16:59:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2017 14:59:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2017 14:59:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-07-21 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211455 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 20(63) 2(65) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) 2(29) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 10N 100W 34 X 5( 5) 36(41) 7(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) 10N 100W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 10N 100W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 95W 34 18 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 16(37) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 23(36) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-21 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211455 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Early visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate that the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few days over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective organization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression. The low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is estimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of a developing cyclonically curved band. Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental conditions are very favorable for the depression to become a tropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most of the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the official forecast which follows the consensus quite close. The depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 12 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent deep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not expected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general track well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during this very busy July. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 9.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 10.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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