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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2017-07-22 22:43:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 222043 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 37(48) 12(60) 1(61) X(61) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 100W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 22(74) 1(75) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 21(41) X(41) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 1(23) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 5(34) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 26(49) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 18(39) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092017)

2017-07-22 22:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT POISED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 the center of Nine-E was located near 10.5, -99.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 6

2017-07-22 22:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 222043 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT POISED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 99.3W ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 99.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. However, some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could reach hurricane status in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 6

2017-07-22 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 222042 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.3W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.3W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 98.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 11.2N 100.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 12.2N 102.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.0N 104.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.7N 105.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 99.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number advisory tropical depression