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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-07-26 22:48:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 085 WTPZ44 KNHC 262048 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin has developed sufficient organization to be classified a tropical depression, the ninth one of the season and second one of the afternoon. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt. Although the depression is expected to be over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the next few days, strong northerly shear should prevent strengthening. The intensity guidance shows little change in strength through the forecast period, and most of the global models show the system opening into a trough within the next few days. Based on this information, the NHC official intensity forecast shows a steady 30-kt depression through the period, but it would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated sometime in the forecast period. The depression is moving to the west at 12 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. This general motion is expected during the next several days, taking the system into the central Pacific basin in 24 to 36 hours, and well south of the Hawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 11.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 10.9N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 10.8N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 10.7N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 10.8N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 11.8N 148.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 12.8N 153.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 13.5N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-07-26 22:48:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 111 FOPZ14 KNHC 262048 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092018 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 X 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-07-26 22:47:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 559 WTPZ24 KNHC 262047 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092018 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 135.5W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 135.5W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 135.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 10.9N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 10.8N 139.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 10.7N 141.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 10.8N 143.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 11.8N 148.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 12.8N 153.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 13.5N 159.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 135.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2017-07-22 23:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 21:34:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 21:34:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-22 22:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222044 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Recent ASCAT data confirmed that the depression has not become any better organized and that the low-level center is on the southern edge of the main convection. T-numbers have remain either steady or decrease slightly, so the initial intensity has been kept at 30 kt at this time. Despite the current lack of organization, the cyclone is expected to be in a very favorable environment of low shear and over warm waters. With these conditions, I have no option but to forecast strengthening. This process will probably be slow during the next day or so, but after that time, the cyclone should strengthen at a faster pace and become a hurricane. This follows the latest intensity guidance which suggest that the most rapid increase in the winds should occur beyond 48 hours. The depression appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 11 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and global models continue to forecast a strong ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern will keep the cyclone on the same general west-northwestward track for the next 5 days, as indicated by the general guidance. This solution is not different from the previous NHC track forecasts which have been keeping the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.5N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 11.2N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 12.2N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 13.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 13.7N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.0N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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