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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-07-27 10:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 527 WTPZ24 KNHC 270831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092018 0900 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 137.7W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 137.7W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 137.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 10.6N 139.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 10.5N 141.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 10.7N 143.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.0N 145.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.9N 150.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 13.0N 155.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 137.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2018-07-27 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Jul 2018 02:34:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Jul 2018 02:34:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-07-27 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 594 WTPZ44 KNHC 270232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 It has been difficult to identify the center of the depression on visible imagery since this afternoon, and microwave imagery from the SSMI and GMI instruments between 2300 and 0000 UTC suggest that the low-level circulation of the depression has not become any better organized. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, but Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that this could be generous. Based on an analysis from UW-CIMSS, 20-25 kt of northwesterly shear is currently affecting the depression, and SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the shear will increase over the next 24 hours. None of the intensity guidance brings the cyclone above minimal tropical storm strength, and the dynamical models all indicate that it will degenerate into a trough of low pressure early next week. The intensity forecast therefore keeps the cyclone as a depression through 96 h, and now shows dissipation by day 5. Given the high shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it is very possible that dissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast. Due to the uncertainty associated with the initial position of the depression, the initial motion is fairly uncertain but is estimated to be 265/13 kt. Little change has been made to the NHC forecast, and the depression is still forecast to continue moving generally westward for the next several days, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The models are in good agreement on the track of the depression through dissipation, and the NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 10.8N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 10.7N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 10.6N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 10.6N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 10.7N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 11.6N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 12.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-07-27 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 549 FOPZ14 KNHC 270232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092018 0300 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 1 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092018)
2018-07-27 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 the center of Nine-E was located near 10.8, -136.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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