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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2017-07-22 10:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 08:40:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 09:28:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-22 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 The satellite appearance of the depression hasn't changed much during the past 6 hours, and the intensity remains 30 kt based on an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Most of the convection is still removed from the center and limited to the western half of the circulation. That said, the intensity forecast thinking hasn't changed, and the environment is still expected to support strengthening throughout the forecast period. Given the current structure of the storm, significant intensification doesn't seem imminent. However, looking at the medium-term, the SHIPS-RII probability of an increase of 65 kt in 72 hours is up to 44 percent. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous forecast for the first 48 h, but similar after that. The forecast remains above all of the guidance for the first two days, and near the SHIPS model after that. The initial motion is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico to western Mexico is the primary steering feature for next few days, and the models are in good agreement on a steady northwestward track beginning later today. All of the global models depict the ridge strengthening after about 72 h, but the extent to which the cyclone responds by turning toward the west varies somewhat. In the models with a stronger vortex, most notably the GFS, a weak upper-level low prevents the storm from turning too sharply toward the west. A weaker modeled storm, as depicted in the UKMET and HWRF would turn almost due west. Overall, the guidance has shifted a little to the west for this advisory, so the forecast has been nudged in that direction. It now lies on the right side of the envelope, favoring the stronger solution of the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 9.6N 96.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 10.1N 98.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 11.1N 100.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 12.1N 101.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 13.2N 103.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 16.8N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-07-22 10:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220832 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 51(71) 3(74) 1(75) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 3(41) X(41) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 10N 100W 34 1 32(33) 5(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 10N 100W 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 100W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 33(43) 5(48) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 14(33) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 23(52) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-22 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 the center of Nine-E was located near 9.6, -96.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 4
2017-07-22 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220832 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 96.6W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 96.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and it could become a hurricane by the end of the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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