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Tropical Depression NINE-E Public Advisory Number 3
2017-07-22 04:40:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.4N 95.7W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 95.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Saturday, and a motion toward the northwest is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight and reach hurricane status later this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-07-22 04:40:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 220239 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 95.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 95.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 9.7N 97.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.7N 99.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 11.8N 101.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.8N 102.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 105.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 95.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-21 22:47:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212046 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Although the convection is not very deep at this time, the organization of the cloud pattern has continued to improve with various curved bands wrapping around the center. An average of the objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are still 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an ideal moist environment with low shear and it is moving over warm SSTs. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and the depression could reach hurricane status in about 48 hours or sooner. The intensity forecast is a little above guidance given such a prevailing favorable environment. The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 12 kt. The depression is moving around the periphery of a strong subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is likely steer the cyclone between the west and west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days toward a weakness of the ridge. After that time, the ridge is forecast to amplify and will likely force the cyclone to move with a more westerly component. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and continues to be in the middle of the track guidance envelope. This forecast keeps the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.0N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 9.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 10.0N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 11.4N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 12.5N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 14.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-21 22:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND... ...NO THREAT TO MEXICO AT THIS TIME... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 the center of Nine-E was located near 9.0, -94.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 2
2017-07-21 22:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 ...DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND... ...NO THREAT TO MEXICO AT THIS TIME... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.0N 94.7W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 9.0 North, longitude 94.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to reach hurricane status later this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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