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Remnants of Josephine Graphics
2020-08-16 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 20:35:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 20:35:09 GMT
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josephine
Remnants of Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-08-16 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162033 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Josephine Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 The low-level swirl seen in visible satellite imagery has become less defined this afternoon, and ASCAT surface wind data that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory indicated that Josephine had degenerated into a trough of low pressure. As a result, this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The ASCAT revealed a small area of 30-kt winds along the northeast side of the trough axis, and that will be the initial wind speed for this advisory. The remnants are forecast to continue encountering a hostile upper-level wind environment over the next couple of days and re-generation of the system is not expected during that time. The strong upper-level winds are forecast to decrease later in the week, but it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take advantage of those conditions. The remnants are moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and should turn northwestward and northward over the next couple of days as a low- to mid-level trough moves near the southeastern U.S. coast. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Future information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.9N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-08-16 22:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 162033 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS ...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Remnants of Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-16 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSEPHINE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 16 the center of Josephine was located near 20.9, -65.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Remnants of Josephine Public Advisory Number 21
2020-08-16 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 212 WTNT31 KNHC 162032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Josephine Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 ...JOSEPHINE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 65.8W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Josephine were located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 65.8 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a toward the northwest is expected tonight. The remnants are forecast to recurve toward the north and northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The maximum winds associated with the remnants are forecast to continue to decrease over the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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