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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 19
2020-08-16 10:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 ...JOSEPHINE LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 64.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 64.0 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, with Josephine forecast to slow down and recurve toward the north and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Josephine is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-08-16 10:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160843 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 64.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 64.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.1N 65.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.4N 67.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.8N 68.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 25.4N 69.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.2N 68.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-16 04:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 02:36:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 03:24:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-16 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JOSEPHINE BARELY MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Josephine was located near 20.1, -62.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-16 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 288 WTNT21 KNHC 160234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 62.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 62.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 67.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.1N 68.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.1N 68.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 30.6N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 32.8N 64.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 62.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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