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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-08-15 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 151432 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-08-15 16:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151432 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 60.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 60.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 59.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.8N 61.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 67.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.2N 68.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.7N 69.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 60.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-15 10:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:41:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:41:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-15 10:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine continues to produce disorganized bursts of deep convection to the north and northeast of the estimated center, with little evidence of any banding features. In spite of the shear, the storm is still producing high-level outflow into the strong upper-level winds. The current intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on continuity from the previous scatterometer-based observations, and an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning, and this should provide a good intensity estimate. Since vertical shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to become quite strong over the next few days, a weakening trend is likely to commence in a day or so. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction. It is also possible that the system will degenerate into an open wave within the next couple of days, as shown by the global models. It is difficult to locate the center at this time, but it is believed to be situated near the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. This leads to a somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area, and then to turn northwest, north, and north-northeast along the periphery of the high. The official track forecast remains close to the NOAA corrected model consensus prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 20.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 26.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-15 10:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSEPHINE LATER THIS MORNING... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Josephine was located near 18.9, -58.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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