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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-14 22:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 142035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the circulation of Josephine was still closed, and that the center was a little farther to the north than previously thought - possibly due to reformation close to a strong convective burst. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 1004 mb, and the combination of flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of 35 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that Josephine is encountering increasing westerly shear, with cirrus clouds west of the storm blowing into the cyclone. Aside from the nudge to the north, the initial motion is generally west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. There is again no change to the track forecast philosophy. Josephine should continue a west- northwestward motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone should gradually turn northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. Portions of the forecast track have been adjusted northward based mainly on the initial position, and the new forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. The increasing shear means that Josephine is just about out of time to intensify. The intensity forecast calls for a little strengthening tonight in case a convective burst causes some spin up. After that, the cyclone should weaken, with the new forecast showing it becoming a depression in 48 h and a remnant low by 96 hr. The global models continue to forecast a faster weakening, and there is still the alternative scenario that Josephine could decay to a tropical wave before 96 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.8N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.6N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.9N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.1N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 24.1N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 25.7N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 28.6N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 32.1N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-08-14 22:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 142035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-08-14 22:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 56.1W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 56.1W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.6N 58.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.9N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.1N 62.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 65.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.7N 67.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 28.6N 67.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 32.1N 65.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-14 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF JOSEPHINE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 14 the center of Josephine was located near 17.8, -56.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 13
2020-08-14 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF JOSEPHINE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 56.1W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken over the weekend as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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