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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)

2020-08-15 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOW JOSEPHINE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 14 the center of Josephine was located near 18.3, -57.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 14

2020-08-15 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 ...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOW JOSEPHINE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 57.4W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 57.4 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2020-08-15 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 150236 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-08-15 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 59.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N 65.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 57.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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