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Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161450 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 65.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 65.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 161450 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-16 10:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 08:47:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 09:24:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-08-16 10:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160844 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Josephine's low-level center has raced out over 100 n mi to the west of a remnant area of deep convection, which itself is shrinking and becoming more disorganized. Due to the loss of organization, it is assumed that Josephine's maximum winds have decreased, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which matches the latest Current Intensity estimates. Analyses from the UW-CIMSS indicate that Josephine is now being pounded by about 35 kt of southwesterly shear, and a zone of even higher shear exists to the northwest of the cyclone. Therefore, continued weakening is expected, and Josephine could lose all of its organized deep convection and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The NHC forecast holds a remnant low after 36 hours until the end of the forecast period, but it is entirely possible that the hostile conditions will cause Josephine to dissipate at any time, with the circulation opening up into a trough. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, although this heading is a bit to the left of the previous motion, suggesting even further that Josephine is becoming a shallower cyclone steered by lower-level winds. Still, there should be enough low- to mid-level troughing moving off the U.S. east coast later today and on Monday to cause Josephine, or its remnants, to recurve toward the north and northeast by day 5. The track guidance agrees on this scenario, although the newest official forecast is a little slower and to the right of the previous prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine is passing far enough to the north of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 20.3N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.1N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 23.8N 68.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 25.4N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 28.2N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-16 10:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSEPHINE LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 16 the center of Josephine was located near 20.3, -64.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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