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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-08-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 152034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-15 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:34:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:34:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-15 16:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151433 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine has a sheared cloud pattern in satellite imagery this morning, with the low-level center located near the western edge of the main convective area. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm reported flight-level winds as high as 47 kt at 925 mb, along with surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 35-40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The aircraft also reported that, while the area of westerly winds south of the center was small, the circulation is still closed and that the central pressure was near 1008 mb. The storm has moved a little to the left since the last advisory, with the motion now west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. Other than that, there is little change in the forecast track or the forecast track philosophy. During the next 2-3 days, Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area. After that, the system is forecast to re-curve to the north and north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the high. The new NHC forecast lies to the the center of the tightly- clustered guidance and near the various consensus models. Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h. This should cause the system to weaken, with the new intensity forecast now calling for Josephine to weaken to a depression between 36-48 h and degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. Several global models forecast the cyclone to degenerate to a tropical wave before 72 h, and this remains a viable alternative forecast scenario, especially considering how small the closed circulation is. There is a chance that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile environment after 72 h. However, it is unclear at this time whether there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of that. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 19.1N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.8N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 23.8N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 25.2N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 26.7N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-15 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF JOSEPHINE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Josephine was located near 19.1, -60.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 16
2020-08-15 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151432 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 ...CENTER OF JOSEPHINE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 60.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 60.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through today. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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