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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 ...JOSEPHINE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 52.2W ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 52.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-14 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 52.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 52.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 54.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N 59.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.0N 62.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.8N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 67.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 52.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-13 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 14:55:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 15:24:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-13 16:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 131453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 A just-received ASCAT overpass showed an area of 35-40 kt winds about 70 n mi north of the center of Tropical Depression Eleven, and based on this the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Josephine with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern associated with Josephine has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a ragged central convective feature and a weak band in the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/13 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next several days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more after 72-96 h, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track and a little to the left of the consensus models. Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next 24- 36 h as Josephine moves through an environment of light vertical wind shear. After that, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear as it approaches an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic, which should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward for the first 72 h based on the current intensity. After 72 h, it shows weakening similar to the previous forecast, but not as drastic as the global models that show the storm degenerating to a tropical wave before 120 h. Josephine is the earliest tenth tropical storm of record in the Atlantic, with the next earliest tenth storm being Tropical Storm Jose on August 22, 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.5N 51.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 19.9N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 21.3N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 27.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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