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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-14 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141441 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 Morning visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of Josephine is located to the south or southwest of the strongest area of convection, likely due to the onset of southwesterly vertical wind shear. A just-received scatterometer pass supports an initial intensity of 35 kt, but also suggests the possibility that the circulation is longer closed. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Josephine this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity and whether a closed circulation still exists. The initial motion continues west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward along the southern edge of the higher-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has not changed significantly since the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast. Southwesterly to westerly shear should markedly increase after 12-18 h due mainly to upper-level troughing over the southwestern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast leaves open the possibility of a little strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by weakening due to the shear. The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast showing the system decaying to a remnant low by 120 h. However, an alternative scenario, supported by several of the global models, is that the cyclone decays to a tropical wave well before that time. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.1N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 20.9N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 22.5N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 30.6N 65.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-14 10:40:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 08:40:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 09:24:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-14 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140836 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 As has been the case for the last couple of days, the center of the tropical storm is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Some new convective cells have been forming nearer to the estimated center, but the overall cloud pattern is quite ragged-looking at this time. ASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. NOAA data buoy 41040 confirmed that the system still has a closed circulation since it reported light westerly winds while the center of Josephine passed to its north. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later today. Josephine is beginning to move into an environment of increasing vertical shear associated with a large upper-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic. Therefore, the window of opportunity for strengthening is closing soon. The official intensity forecast allows for some intensification during the next 24 hours before the upper-level winds become prohibitively strong. However, the NHC forecast is now above most of the model intensity guidance through 72 hours. The storm continues its west-northwestward motion and is moving at about 300/15 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48 hours or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the weakness in 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward while it approaches the higher-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and also lies close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 53.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.5N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.0N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 19.1N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 21.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 23.1N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 26.0N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-08-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140836 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-14 10:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 14 the center of Josephine was located near 15.3, -53.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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